HomeMy WebLinkAbout08162016 Planning & Zoning Work Session Laydown Development of corner Q0 by 100 foot) lots...
Currently there is a 10 foot setback for properties with a side street(in several zoning districts).A 30 foot by 100
foot lot is nearly rendered undevelopable by this requirement.A 10 foot side street setback combined with an
additional 5 foot side setback gives a developer 15 feet of width to place a structure. Allowing a 5 foot side street
setback would increase the developable width of a 30 foot by 100 foot lot to 20 feet. In order to control the density
of the development, the structural height for a side to a street could be reduced to 26 feet.
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Alaska Economic Update-Pait 4-Alaskanomics Page 1 or 3
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Thursday,February 25,2oi6
Alaska Economic Update-Part 4
ily Mark Edwards
Home lending activity flat-The Alaska Housing Finance Corporation(AHFQ released its third quarter report on Alaska housing indicators.It tracks new loan
activity for single family homes and condominiums in Alaska.The data is based on a survey representing approximately 9,5%of mortgage lenders in Aaska and
also includes AHFC loans.The survey covered mortgage lending activity in the first nine months of 2015.
it reported 6,511 loans were originated statewide for single family homes and condominiums for a total amount of$1.77 billion.This is a slight decrease in volume
relative to the first 9 months of 2014.Loans were done with an average down payment of i1%for the last live years.Single family homes accounted for 88%of
statewide mortgage lending activity with 49%of those loans occurring in Anchorage.The Mat-Su contributed 18%of the volume,to%in Fairbanks,8%in Kenai,
5%.luneau,2%Kodiak,and t%in Ketchikan.
9%of total mortgage activity for the quarter was for condominiums and only 3%was multi-family.8g%of condominiums were financed in Anchorage.Juneau
accounted for 5%,and the Mat-Su,Kenai and Fairbanks combined for another 5%.
Refinance activity slowed rapidly ill.2024 and has leveled offthis year-30 year conventional fixed interest rate mortgage loans have been getting less
expensive for three decades.In t98t they peaked at 16.6%and have undergone a slow and steady decline ever since.In early 200g rates dipped under 5%on
average for the first time and a surge in refinance activity began.
According to AHFC statistics,there was about$400 million in refinance loans completed in Alaska in 2oo6 and 2007.111 2008,the average rose to$1,6 billion.
Then in 2oog the nctitiity spiked to$3.7 billion when the average 30 year interest rate declined nearly 1..5%in six months.
301 YEAR a
,
In 2olo,the refinance volume declined to$2.4 billion,followed by$2.1 billion in 2011,2m2 save an unexpected decrease in interest rates again to an all-lime
historic tow of 3.3%by the end of the year.This led to an increase to$3.t billion in refinance activity.
Rates increased throughout 2o13 and have maintained close to 4%over the last two)Pars.Most recently they were 3.89%as of NV ember 2015,resulting,ir,a low
level of refinance activity because rates have not really improved for consumers in the last few 3 ears.Nearh eyeCymle Kho COtl.id have benefited from a refinance
likely has by now.According to AHFC,annual refinance activity fell to$t.6 billion in 201:3 and only$5oo million in 2014.Through three quarters of 201,5 there has
beer.$647 million of refinances in Alaska.
http:/,i%vtiw.mast:anoinics.cont,'2016r02/alitsk-a-economic-update-pari-4.htu11 8/2!20 16
Alaska Economic Update-Part 4-Alaskanomics Page 2 of 3
Housing statistics still good relative to the U.S.—The recently released survey by the Mortgage Bankers Association shows that Alaska continues to have
some of the lowest levels of foreclosures and delinquencies on residential mortgage loans in the United States.At the end of 2015,Alaska ranked 4th and 2nd best in
the nation out of go states in foreclosures and delinquencies of all hone loan types.
The total inventory of foreclosures in process is o.73o in Alaska,while the country still has a larger lingering foreclosure inventory at 1.8%due to higher rates during
the recession and longer resolution times.These rates are an improvement from five years ago when Alaska's rate was 1.4%and the U.S.foreclosure rate Was 4.6%.
Housing markets appear io have stabilized in many parts of the country.
Delinquent loans are more than 3o days past due,but not yet in foreclosure.Alaska is second best in the overall level of delinquent loans.Alaska's delinquency rate
is 2.7%,while the U.S.average is 5%for all home loan types.This is an improvement for Alaska from 4.8%five years ago.The U.S.delinquency rate has also come
down more dramatically from 9.4%at this time five years ago.
The National`Great Recession'largely spared Alaska,as shown in the below table:
Alaska's Foreclosures Low and Continuing to Decline
ALASttA AND THE U.S.,2003 TO FIRST HALF OF 2015
a.a�t
_-
trlla@ MA"
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Amda
Subprime lending to traditionally non-qualified borrowers was a large contributing factor to the national mortgage problems.The survey covers 93,384 mortgages
in Alaska.5,829 or 6.2%were considered subprime,compared to 7.2%nationally.The rate of delinquencies and foreclosures on subprime loans is signifcantty
higher.However,Alaska is in a far better position and has the lowest iewel of foreclosures and delinquencies for this impurtant category,Siibpi rote foreclosures in
Alaska are at 1.7%while the national average is 7.8%.,4laska's subprime delinquency rate is 6.3%compared to the national average of 16.2%.State across the
country,including Alaska,have shown steady improvements in reducing the subprime problems over the last five years.
National
Rank Alaska U.S.
Delinquencies,total 40 2015 2ttd best 2.7% 5%
foreclosures, total in progress 4th best 0.7% 1.8%
Best in
Subp6me delinquencies Nation 6.3% 16.2%
Best in
Subprime foreclosures Nadon 1.7% 7.8%
Building permits still historically low-According to the U.S.Census Bureau,the number of building permits for new,privately oi%ned housing of 1 to 5 unit
buildings remained low for the 9th straight year.it had been under 1,000 units since 2007,but in 2013 it grew 9%to i,o81.2014 saw a jump up to i.5o9,with a
small decrease to 1,291 last year.
A larger nun iber of single family homes and nuilti-family structures were built in 2014,while slightly more duplexes and;i to 4 unit 4ornes were buii t in 2015.
The biggest challenge has.been making new construction,affordable enough to meet buyer's income levels.The newly implemented Anchorage Title 21 regulations
will provide further upwvarJ price pressuie on new cep_truction due to increased regulatory requirements.There is a shortage of low cost housing in Anchorage.
Housing vacancy factors are very loiv aad the number of existing homes under$35u.000 is in short supply.There is less than ttwo inonths of inventory available in
all price ranges beiowv S[350,00o.Anchorage is expected to follow other growing cities by becoming denser,building vertical and redeveloping older properties.
Alaska Multiple Listing Service(MUS)sbow s the average sales price of single family homes has grown each of the last four years.Since-_nor 1 the average price has
grown from$321,g58 to 8366,585 in 20 t5.That is total growth of 13.9%in four years.[n 2015 rate of change was up 2:3%.
http:!,'wvwwwv.alaskanot,tics.colzii2O16/02i'alaska-ccor7umic-update-part-4.htnil 8!2r20 16
Alaska Economic Updatc-Part 4-Aiaskanomics Page 3 oi`;
i
s
BUILDING PERPOITS
-Improvement since market lowin 2011
a1AII,
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Posted by tifark Edi%ards at oA:go M,4 in Alaska's Economv,Fiscal Policy Housin ,Mark F awards Permalink
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http://Nvm%k.alaskanonlics.c(pin'2016/02/alask-a-econanie-update-part-4.i:tlrti 8/2 2016
New Page 1 Page t of 1
Kenai Peninsula Borowj,
144 North Binkley Street Soldotna,AK 99069
Phone-(907)262-4441 or(800)478-4441 or on the web www.borouph.kenai.ak.us
KP13 Population b%APc Gronp - 1990 y 2000
1990 2000 Percent Percent
Change uCTotA Population
Total Population 40,8021 49,6911 21.8%1 1
Under 5 years 1 3,8621 3,2881 -149%1 6.6%1
5 to 9 years_� 4,059 _ 4,024f A -0.9%A 8.1-/
1 10 to 14 years 1 3,5161 4,6981� 33.6%1 9.5%1
IL 15 to.9 years_ — 2,970 4,1401� v 39.4% —8.3%1
1 20 to 24 years ` 2,08E 2,132 2.550]� 4.34
1 25 to 34 years 1 7,3481 5,6481 -23.t% 1 1.4%1
35 to 44 years 1 8,234 9,0741 10.2% 18.3%1
i 45 to 54 years 4,2051 8,739I 107.8%1 I T6%1
1 55 to 59 years 1,3761 2,6321 91.3%1 5.3%1
60 to 64 years 1 1,1641 1,66'1I 43 2%,1 3 4%1
i
65 to 74 years 1 1,4891 2,3611 58.6%1 4,8'01
I� 75to84years 1 419+1 1,0771 157.0%I 2.2%1
I185 years and over 1 791 2111 167.1%1 0.4%
I r
KPB's median age increased from 31.1 years during the 1990 census to 36.3 as of Census 2000.Alaska's median age is 32.4 years while the
I inited Stntes median age is 35.3 years.
According to the AK DOL&WD,KPB's 2004 population is estimated at 50,980:a 0.8%decrease from 2003.Estimates are based primarily on
births,deaths and Permanent Fund Dividend applications.
KPB Census Data by CDP- 1940-2000 KPB Census Designated Places Map KPB Housing Density
KPB Population Estimates by C_DP 2000-2006 KPB Population by Age Group KPB_Select Census Detail
Select Census Detail Homer Kenai Seldovia Seward Soldotna KPB Population Projections
KPB Voter Participation Vital Statistics
Kenai Peninsula Borough School District Enrollment by School History and Projections
IIKenai Peninsula College Alaska Vocational Technical Center-AVTech KPB Public Libraries Circulation l
i1 Census 2000 detail for -KPB Anchor Point Bear Creek Be luga Clam Gulch Cohoc Cooper Landing
Crown Point Diamond Ridge Fax River Fritz Creek Funny River Halibut Cove Happv_Vallev
II Homer Hone Kachemak Kaliforns Kasilof Kenai Lowell Point Miller Landing
Moose Pass Nanwalek Nikiski Nikolaevsk Ninilchik Port Graham Primrose Ridgeway
Salamatof Seldovia Village Se[dovia City Seward Soldotna Sterling Sunrise Tyonck
( Kenai Peninsula Borough Horne Page_ Economic Analysis Office 11ome Pa r, Economic Analysis Index � I!
http:ilvi.miNv2.borougli.keiiai.ak.usiL-coii/[S_P%'-OdataiDentographies..,Po})uEation3yAgeGroup.him 8,2/'G1G
A L A S 1-,,,
�.. . t
NG MAI� Kf...
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By KARINNE WIEBOLD proved over that period. Statewide wages rose 3.5 per-
cent, outpacing a 1.1 percent increase in inflation, and
There's heightened interest in some of the state's the average mortgage interest rate dropped a little
broad economic measures recently as a result over half a percentage point.
of low oil prices and state budget challenges.
Through the first half of 2015, housing prices and other For more than two decades,the Department of Labor
housing market indicators showed no major signs of and Workforce Development's Research and Analysis
weakness. Section has worked with the Alaska Housing Finance
Corporation to collect and analyze Alaska's housing
The average sales price for a single-family home in statistics, including residential loans, new construction;
Alaska increased 4 percent from the first half of 2014. foreclosures, interest rates, and affordability. What fol-
But despite higher prices, housing affordability im- lows is a summary of our most recent findings.
Average Home Prices in Alaska and the U.S.
2000 TO FIRST HALF OF 2015, IN 2015 DOLLARS
—
Aiaska
53u0,0oti
$250,000
U.S.
5200,000
5150,C00
$100,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 200S 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 201S
Sources:Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development,Research anti Analysis Section,Quarterly Survey of
Mortgage Lending Activity,National Association of Reait&rs
• While Alaska has historically been a * The average sales price in the U.S.
more expensive place to buy, single- plunged by a third from 2006 to 2011.
family home prices tracked closely Alaska's dipped by just 5.5 percent.
with the national average until 2006,
s !n the
after which Alaska's prices dipped but first half of 2015, Alaska's aver
generally maintained value while U.S, age single-family home cost 46 per
prices fell precipitously. cent more than the national average.
Average home Prices Around the State
FIRST HALF OF 2015
$400,000 - ----�
$350,000
I
$300,000 i
I
$250.000
$200,000
$150,000
M0,000
$50,000
$D -
Statewide Anciioraoe Mat-su Fairbanks Kenai J'_Weau Ketchikan Kodiak Island Bethel
North Star P�ninsu!a Gatrway
Source-Alosko Department of i abor and Workforce Development,Research and Aoolysis Sectfon,Quarterly Survey of Mori gage
tending Activity
• Prices vary greatly around the state. A Single-family home prices in. Fairbanks,
single-family home iri Anchorage aver- the lowest of the surveyed areas in the
ages 35 percent more than in neighbor- first half of 2015, have been falling over
ing Matanuska-Susitna Borough. the last couple years. At the same time,
the area has lost some population and a
• Anchorage, Juneau, and Kodiak are typi- small number of jobs.
cally high priced markets, while Mat Su,
Fairbanks, and Kenai tend to be lower
priced.
Alaska's Foreclosures Low and Continuing to Decline
ALASKA AND THE U.S., 2003 TO FIRST HALF OF 2015
national
5.0% f foreclosure crisis
4 5� United States
4.W
3.0% j
2.5%
2.0%
1.5% Alaska
t.ogo —�-
os%
0
o� do�ti �v tiM ti" tie
,to ryo ,v° o do ,vo ryo do .tie do ,yo do
Sources:Alaska Deportment of Labor and iorkforce Development,Reseorch enl,Anolysis Section;and MortgoQ6 Brokers
Associction
While Alaska saw an increase in foreclo- • The current foreclosure rate in Alaska
sures in the wake of the national hous- is roughly a third of the national rate,
ing crisis,we fared quite well in com- and both rates continue to fall as the
parison due to less speculative building economy recovers from the overheated
and more conservative lending, among housing market and national recession.
other things.
4 8|���� ��������� ����{���� |������'��|\/ �f�~,��4|e
- '_ . _ Increasingly^�. ' Affordable
- -
2O0OTD FIRST HALF OFZ0l5
/ m/ `m
1.57
uv /�r -
- '°^ /'42 139 � | ,^
1.34 1.36
1.32
z�n �zr
� ou Lu
` |
201,10 2001 mm 20M 2004 2005 200* 20D7 2008 mm 2020 mn 20,z 2013 2014 2015
Source:Alaska Depot onmto/l.aom and mmmfoup Development,Research vnuAnolyu.m'm`n,Quarterly u//arv*rmortuooe
Leo^moA,uvi*
° The affordability index measures the o According to'the National As»noip
nu/nbe/ofaverogevvageearoersre ti000[Realtors' affordability index,
quired to purchase home (given the housing nationwide has become less
constraints outlined in the box be affordable this year compared to last,
low). Lower numbers |o6icate greater as the increase in single-family sales
affordability. prices has only been partially offset
bY declining interest rates and mnd
° Purchasing homes in Alaska has estgainv in median incomes.
become more affordable io the last
several years, primarily due to his-
torically low interest rates.
How the affordability index works income is required to afford mtypice|home. An increasing
number means additional income|s necessary, making
The Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce oeve|- housing less affordable.
opmant creates indexes to monitor housing affordability
uomyaA�onko Thaindaxwumnuouroanu/nborof000. The index monitors huumin Kordmbi|itybased only on
� factors the Department of Labor and Workforce Devo|op'
nnmioMnusingtactoeandhmm1heyintenoct.Produoingm ment measures nnu regular basis. However, many other
single value. factors affect affordability, nomo ofvvhinh are unique Vn
The Alaska Affordability Index considers sales prices, loan households'situations and would be difficult to measure
amuunto.wages,and interest rates to estimate haw many consistently. These|nu|udm�
wage earners |t would take tn afford m3O'yenr fixed rate ° Hazard insurance and mortgage insurance
mortgage onan average priced home. given the average
interest rate,wage, and loan amount and am^ummQ 24 * Property taxes,which vary by area and property size
percent nf the earner's gross wages are avaUub|o for mnrt,
gage paymeni*. Put another way, it tells you how many ° Utilities.which can heauhytan\|ai and very depending
people have Va bring ina paycheck Vm afford ahome «n energy type
Ao index value uf1.Omwonm exactly one po/yoo'»average ° Adjustable rate.mortgages,where monthly payments
can change dramatically based nninte,estrate eh|fty
Interest Rate Falling Again After Brief Climb
ALASKA AND THE U.S., 2000 TO 2015
s.oss
7.5%
7.0%
6.5%
6.0%
5.5%
5.0%
4.5%
4.0%
3.5%
3.0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2005 2007 2OG8 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source:Alaska Department of tabor and Workforre Development.Research and Analysis Section,Quarterly Survey
of Mortgage Lending Activity
• Interest rates have a significant they may begin to raise the bench-
influence on affordability. For exam- mark interest rate(which has stayed
ple, a 4 percent interest rate rather between 0 and 0.25 percent for
than 5 percent saves a homebuyer nearly six years) by the end of 2015
$178 a month on a $300,000 home. or early 2016, and when they do so,
mortgage interest rates will likely
T he Federal Reserve has indicated rise.
r Alaska's Average Wage Has Topped U.S. Since 2008
ADJUSTED TO 2014 DOLLARS, 2000 TO 2014
$54,000 .. .. .... ........._...
Ss3,occ .�}
Aia,k-
S52,c00
$51,000
$50,000 � U S.
'49,000 �
548,OOG i
547,000
S46,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Sources:Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development Research and Analysis Section,Quarterly Survey
of Mortgage Lending Activitv.-Nationa'Associotion of Realtors
Contrary to popular belief,Alaska parts of the 2000s, Alaska's average
has not always had higher average wage pulled ahead :luring the na-
wages than the nation. tional recession of the past decade
and continued to exceed national
• After rising above and dipping below averages during the recovery period.
the national average in the early
=`' Fairbanks Homes Become the Most Affordable
NUMBER OF PAYCHECKS REQUIRED TO Buy, 2000 TO FIRST HALF OF 2015
L 43 1.48
1.34
1.03
Source:Alaska Department of lobar and Workforce
Development,Research and Analysis Section
Anchorage Mat-Su Fairbanks Juneau
i.6 I
.�.-..� f
.._- Juneau
Mat-su
14 �- "µ I Anchorage
i
�.2 I
�- 1 paycheck required �--"' ��„
., Fairbar}ks
0.8 I — ----
2000 200r 2002 2003 2004 Zoos 2006 2007 2009 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
• Affordability depends on each area's From 2006 to 2008, a combination of
unique combination of sales price and peak home prices and interest rates
wages. about 2.5 percentage points higher
than. in 2015 pushed the index value
a It might be surprising that Mat-Su is up in all areas, requiring much more
less affordable than Anchorage, be- than a single paycheck to afford the
cause Anchorage is generally a more typical mortgage.
expensive place to live. Although Mat-
Su homes are less expensive, PVlat-Su Despite relatively high wages, high
wages are considerably lower than in home prices in Juneau keep it less af-
Anchorage, resulting in a higher index fordable than other areas.
value.
• Failing home prices make Fairbanks Karinne',Wiebuld is atl ecoiwrni�t in Juneau.Reach
very affordable, requiring just over a her at(907)465-6039 or karinne.wiebold@alaska.
single paycheck. JJ